Ukraine War ‘Turned Everything Upside Down’ in This Polish Town 在這波蘭小鎮 俄烏戰爭「讓一切天翻地覆」

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2023/06/23 第438期 訂閱/退訂∣看歷史報份

紐時周報精選 Ukraine War 'Turned Everything Upside Down' in This Polish Town 在這波蘭小鎮 俄烏戰爭「讓一切天翻地覆」 The 'Peace Dividend' Is Over in Europe. Now Come the Hard Tradeoffs. 歐洲「和平紅利」沒了 面臨艱難權衡

Ukraine War 'Turned Everything Upside Down' in This Polish Town 在這波蘭小鎮 俄烏戰爭「讓一切天翻地覆」 文/Andrew Higgins 譯/周辰陽 在這波蘭小鎮 俄烏戰爭「讓一切天翻地覆」 Set in a thick forest, ringed by limpid lakes and free of violent crime, the town of Borne Sulinowo in northwestern Poland has undeniable bucolic charm — except for the ghosts on every eerily quiet street of the Nazi and then Soviet soldiers who built it. 坐落茂密森林中，被清澈湖泊環繞，沒有暴力犯罪，波蘭西北部城鎮博爾內蘇利諾沃有無可否認的田園魅力－只不過在每條出奇寂靜的街道，修建它的納粹與後來的蘇聯士兵似乎陰魂不散。 Governed for the past three decades by Poland, the town was controlled by and was part of Germany before World War II, seized by the Red Army in 1945 and occupied by Moscow's forces until 1992. For a time, it embraced its dark side, eager to attract visitors and money to a forlorn and formerly forbidden zone so secret it did not appear on maps. 這個城鎮過去30年間由波蘭治理，第二次世界大戰前被德國控制且是德國的一部分，1945年遭紅軍拿下後被莫斯科的軍隊占用到1992年。有一段時間，它接受了自己的陰暗面，渴望吸引遊客與金錢到這個荒涼的前禁區。這裡如此保密，以至於沒有出現在地圖上。 Military re-enactors, including enthusiasts from Germany and Russia, visited each year to stage a parade, dressed in Soviet and Nazi uniforms, which are banned from public display in Germany. 軍事重演者，包括來自德國與俄國愛好者，每年來訪舉行閱兵，穿上蘇聯與德國禁止公開陳列的納粹制服。 A Polish businessperson opened the Russia Hotel, decorating it with photographs of himself and a friend dressed in Russian military uniforms and with communist-era banners embroidered with images of Vladimir Lenin. His other ventures in the town included a cafe named after Grigori Rasputin and boozy, Russia-themed corporate events. 一位波蘭商人開設了俄羅斯飯店，用自己跟友人身穿俄羅斯軍裝的照片，以及繡上列寧畫像的共產主義時代標語裝飾。他在該鎮的其他事業包括一家以拉斯普丁為名的咖啡館，和俄羅斯主題豪飲商務活動。 Russia's full-scale of invasion of Ukraine stopped all that. Kitsch became offensively creepy. 俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭停止了這一切。媚俗變成令人不愉快的毛骨悚然。 "Everything changed very quickly," said Monika Konieczna-Pilszek, the manager of the Russia Hotel and daughter of its founder. Online reviews, she said, suddenly went from "commenting on our food to talking about burning us down." 創辦人女兒、俄羅斯飯店經理莫妮卡．科涅茨納-皮爾塞克說，「一切變化得非常快」。她說，網上評價突然從「評論我們的食物變成討論把我們燒光光」。 She told her father they had to change the name. "Instead of attracting people, it was repelling them," she said. The inn is now called the Borne Sulinowo Guesthouse. A big Soviet banner hung in the hallway next to its restaurant has been turned around so Lenin is no longer visible. 她告訴她父親，他們必須更改店名。她說，「原店名不再吸引人，而是讓人厭惡」。這家旅館現在叫作博爾內蘇利諾沃賓館，掛在附設餐廳旁邊走廊的巨大蘇聯標語已經翻過來，所以再也看不到列寧了。 "Nobody wants to be reminded of Russia these days," Konieczna-Pilszek said. 科涅茨納-比爾塞克表示，「這些日子沒人願意想到俄羅斯」。 Dariusz Tederko, a local official responsible for promoting the town, lamented that the war in Ukraine "has turned everything upside down." The military re-enactors, he said, are no longer welcome. The Russians couldn't come anyway because of a government ban. 負責宣傳該鎮的當地官員泰代魯科感嘆，烏克蘭戰爭「讓一切天翻地覆」。他說，軍事重演者不再受歡迎。因為政府禁令，俄羅斯人不能來了。 Trying to draw more Poles and Western Europeans, he now promotes the town's less-triggering charms. "We have lots of beautiful heather," he said, waving a brochure with pictures of hiking trails and wildflowers. 他現在宣傳該鎮沒那麼冒犯人的吸引力，設法招攬更多波蘭人與西歐人。他揮著印有登山步道與野花照片的小冊子說，「我們有很多美麗的石南花」。 "Everything Russian stopped being funny after the war in Ukraine," he lamented. 他感嘆，「在烏克蘭戰爭後，俄羅斯的一切都不好玩了」。 　 The 'Peace Dividend' Is Over in Europe. Now Come the Hard Tradeoffs. 歐洲「和平紅利」沒了 面臨艱難權衡 文/Patricia Cohen , Liz Alderma 譯/周辰陽 歐洲「和平紅利」沒了 面臨艱難權衡 In the 30 years since the Iron Curtain came crashing down, trillions of dollars that had been dedicated to Cold War armies and weapons systems were gradually diverted to health care, housing and schools. 鐵幕轟然倒塌的30年來，曾經貢獻給冷戰軍隊與武器系統的數以兆計美元，逐漸轉移到健保、住房與學校。 That era — when security took a back seat to trade and economic growth — abruptly ended with Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year. 安全讓位給貿易與經濟成長的那個時代，隨著俄羅斯去年入侵烏克蘭戛然而止。 "The peace dividend is gone," Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, recently declared, referring to the mountains of cash that were freed up when military budgets shrank. "Defense expenditures have to go up." 國際貨幣基金總裁喬治艾娃最近宣告「和平紅利沒了」，她指的是軍事預算縮水時騰出來的大量現金，「國防開支必須上漲」。 The urgent need to combat a brutal and unpredictable Russia has forced European leaders to make excruciating budgetary decisions that will enormously affect people's everyday lives. Do they spend more on howitzers or hospitals, tanks or teachers, rockets or roadways? And how to pay for it: raise taxes or borrow more? Or both? 要對抗殘酷與難以預料的俄羅斯，此一迫切需求迫使歐洲領導人做出令人痛苦的預算決策，將大幅影響人們的日常生活。他們會在哪個項目多花錢，榴彈砲還是醫院、戰車還是教師、火箭還是道路？還有如何籌錢：增稅還是借更多錢？或者兩者皆是？ The sudden security demands, which will last well beyond an end to the war in Ukraine, come at a moment when colossal outlays are also needed to care for rapidly aging populations, as well as to avoid potentially disastrous climate change. The European Union's ambitious goal to be carbon neutral by 2050 alone is estimated to cost between $175 billion and $250 billion each year for the next 27 years. 突如其來的安全需求，即使在烏克蘭戰爭結束後也會長久持續，此刻還需要龐大費用照料急劇老化的人口，以及避免潛在災難性氣候變遷。單單歐盟要在2050年實現碳中和的遠大目標，接下來27年估計每年要花1,750億至2,500億美元。 "The spending pressures on Europe will be huge, and that's not even taking into account the green transition," said Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard. "The whole European social safety net is very vulnerable to these big needs." 哈佛大學經濟學教授羅格夫說，「歐洲支出壓力會很大，這甚至沒有考慮到綠色轉型。整個歐洲社會安全網非常容易受到這些大型需求的影響」。 Before war broke out in Ukraine, military spending by the European members of NATO was expected to reach nearly $1.8 trillion by 2026, a 14% increase over five years, according to research by McKinsey & Co. Now, spending is estimated to rise between 53% and 65%. 根據麥肯錫公司研究，戰爭在烏克蘭爆發之前，北約的歐洲成員國到2026年軍事開支預期將達近1.8兆美元，5年間增長14%。現在，這筆開支估計將提高53%至65%。 That means hundreds of billions of dollars that otherwise could have been used to, say, invest in bridge and highway repairs, child care, cancer research, refugee resettlement or public orchestras is expected to be redirected to the military. 也就是說，原本可能被用在諸如橋梁與公路修繕、兒童照顧、癌症研究、難民安置或公共管弦樂團的數千億美元，預期將被轉用於軍事。

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